The mere whisper of de-escalation — the faintest suggestion that the theatre of war may be drawing its curtain — and we witnessed something rather instructive: a market that exhaled.
As per Mr. Pritam Deuskar, CIO, Wealthyvia Ventures LLP, after every brutal correction, structurally-sound sectors lead the recovery — invariably the first to reclaim all-time highs. The stocks that fell least during the pain almost always rise the most, most durably, during the reversal. India is at an extraordinary juncture. The sectors being born in this decade — energy, power electronics, defence and spacetech, capital markets architecture, advanced manufacturing — are not cyclical trades. They are generational allocations. The traditional investor mentality anchored in legacy IT, old-economy banks, and commoditised index heavyweights will increasingly find itself on the wrong side of a very decisive structural shift.
Our positioning was not accidental. While the consensus catastrophised, our holdings held their ground with a composure that only genuine business quality produces. Pure-play Power Equipment +30% YTD. Energy Electronics & Automation +22% YTD. Grid Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure +25% YTD. Exchange & Capital Markets Infrastructure — stable, composed. These were not lucky picks. Businesses anchored in the irreversible: India’s energy transition, grid modernisation, and the institutionalisation of its capital markets.
The moment the fog lifts, audit your portfolio with ruthless honesty. Are you holding ducks disguised as eagles? Will you keep sitting on the tortoise — or ride the strong horses showing stamina, speed and endurance — the very business characteristics for long-term, large growth and sustenance?
When Debt Service Becomes the True Cost of War
There is an iron law of sovereign finance: a government cannot simultaneously fight wars abroad and sustain ballooning debt costs at home. The United States confronts this law with terrifying directness.
When interest costs consume 23.5% of total tax revenue — pointing toward 30%+ within 18 months — sovereign fiscal space collapses. The IMF classifies fiscal stress at 15%; the US crossed that threshold long ago. Every month of sustained conflict adds $80–120B in financing at 4.65%. History is unambiguous: bond markets end wars before armies do — Vietnam broke Bretton Woods, the Soviet Union collapsed under military fiscal overreach. According to Mr. Pritam Deuskar, rising US bond yields strengthen India's appeal as a structurally resilient investment destination.
India’s insulation is structural: 81% public debt in domestic currency, RBI already easing (repo 5.25%), CPI at a historic 1.7% low — a policy divergence that compresses US equity multiples while enhancing India’s risk-adjusted attractiveness.
The Rare Moment When Good Things Can Be Bought Well
Every correction feels catastrophic from within, while every recovery appears obvious in hindsight. Investors who fail to distinguish between the two often destroy wealth by buying euphoria instead of value. The March 2026 correction was driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than deteriorating corporate earnings or structural economic weakness. As Mr. Pritam Deuskar notes, such dislocations often create attractive entry points for long-term investors, particularly when valuations correct without a corresponding decline in business fundamentals.
India’s M2/Sensex ratio at ~1.02x confirms fair value — not cheap, not stretched. The P/E compression from 24–25x to 20.5x — driven by ₹88,000 crore in FPI outflows in March alone — has mechanically repriced quality franchises to levels where 14–18% corporate earnings growth delivers pure return with no valuation headwind to fight. Any re-rating of multiples back toward the historical mean of 22x is pure additional return — a double engine of compounding.
The historical evidence from the post-shock outperformance table above is the most powerful validation: after every major geopolitical event in the last 35 years, the sectors that compressed the least during the shock led the recovery most decisively. In each cycle, the patient investor who bought quality at corrected valuations — not in spite of the fear, but because of it — achieved the best risk-adjusted returns of that entire decade. The same dynamic is unfolding now. FPI selling that repriced India from 24x to 20.5x has not changed a single earnings line at any structurally sound business. It has simply created a wider margin of safety.
Why India Wins Where Others Are Losing Ground
India’s competitive advantage is measurable across every dimension that matters: GDP growth 7.4% (vs China 4.6%, EU ~0.4%), inflation at a historic 1.7% low (vs Vietnam 4.3%, EU 5.2%), median age 28 years (vs China 39, Europe 44), manufacturing GVA surging 13.3%, EU market access now 93% duty-free, forex reserves at $698–723Bn, fiscal deficit falling to 4.4% of GDP, and digital payments at 45% of GDP via UPI. On every axis — demographic, fiscal, monetary, trade, and digital — India leads the field.
The FTA revolution is India’s crowning strategic achievement. The India-EU deal (93% duty-free, €4bn savings) eliminates the LDC advantage Bangladesh and Vietnam have held for decades. The EFTA deal legally binds $100B in FDI to trade access — the world’s first such commitment. The Australia ECTA secures Lithium and Cobalt supply, directly challenging China’s EV battery monopoly. India’s FTA architecture is not trade policy; it is industrial strategy deployed as geopolitical instrument.
“Summarising all the points, Crux of this is to understand from Today what you hold and why for next 18 months will matter more than ever. Aligning portfolios with solid reasoning with natural sectoral tailwinds is more important than ever. India’s once in century, Confluence of forces moment has arrived now in terms of low inflation, high gdp growth, fair valuations, readiness for consumption , young demographics, world over FTA alliance and unstoppable growth. Right alignment will make fortunes if you make right moves NOW.”
Yours sincerely and profitably
Pritam Deuskar , CIO – Wealthyvia Ventures LLP
This brief is published by Wealthyvia Ventures LLP for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Views represent the CIO Desk opinion as of the date of publication. Data sourced from Investmint Annual Letter 2026, India AIF Newsletter March 2026, RBI, MOSPI, SEBI, and Bloomberg. For institutional and sophisticated investors only.